|MARKET OUTLOOK 2001: Upward
price pressure to continue.
Export steer prices for 2001 look set to continue at the same strong levels as 2000 and
both the average and peak prices could exceed those of 2000 by at least 6%. At some point,
per kg prices for female cattle are likely to exceed those for steers due to the added
influence of an expected strong restocker demand and tightening supplies of female cattle.
In short the Australian cattle market has entered it's cyclical "boom" phase
under the influence of the U.S. "Cattle Cycle" and the coincidence of
exceptionally favourable economic and seasonal circumstances, both here and abroad. Values
of all classes of store, slaughter and export stock should benefit from these underlying
conditions which, in our view, should persist at least into the year 2002. Some US pundits
suggest two years longer but we think it's safer to take it a couple of years at a time.
Jap ox is a helpful benchmark. While December prices eased 25 cents off their late
November record highs of $3.15, opening rates in 2001 should be strong but very much
depend on the "end of summer season" we experience. A dry January to early
February could encourage turnoff and keep prices below $3.00 for the first quarter.
However good moisture in major production regions in late summer
should rapidly push prices over $3.00 early in the year.
Regardless of the start to the new year, we are tipping that cattle supply will
eventually "tighten up" relative to demand. Operators in several States are
suggesting that there are just not the numbers of cattle available to meet an expected
increased demand in 2001. In addition they say a reasonable number or 2001 turnoff cattle
were dragged forward into the 2000 market by rising prices. Any degree of increased herd
building pressure in 2001 will almost guarantee that cattle supply reduces, competition
increases and prices for stock rise.
Probably the two most important things for producers to be aware of now is that large
turnoff volumes entering the market at any time will do more to drag prices off their
potential highs (and keep them down) than any of the touted dire effects of exchange rate
rises. If there was a general restraint in turnoff patterns by producers, it would help to
maintain strong price levels.
Secondly, the "boom" will "bust" some time in the foreseeable
future. The bust is cyclically inevitable, always painful and usually lasts from 4-6 years
through a really low point in the middle of the phase. At the moment you could factor it's
kick-in somewhere from middle 2003 to mid 2005 but it becomes clearer the closer it gets.
In the mean time enjoy the ride.
CATTLEFACTS MEMBERS: You can read a detailed 'Market OUTLOOK' report on the web either
on your "Members Newsletter" or "Members Market Reports" or on
Fax-On-Demand as report No.652.
'PERSONAL' CATTLETRADER: Private cattle trading for
'Personal' Cattletrader is Ideal for use by
livestock agents, Breed societies and producer marketing groups who want to run a cattle
trading service on their own web site, yet want the widest coverage for their trades.
Cattlefacts recently launched 'Personal' Cattletrader as a low cost, "plug-in",
maintenance free service to run on private web sites other than the Cattlefacts site. It
is available as an affiliate service for a small monthly lease fee.
In fact, Personal Cattletrader is actually a privatised version of the
standard Cattlefacts Cattletrader that runs on our web site. The main difference is that
Personal Cattletrader runs from your own web site, and is branded with your own logo, eg
"Black stump" Cattletrader. It would run directly from the Black stump web site
and give you total input and delete control on all entries made on your site. It operates
as a private service to your members and is available to visitors to your web site.
There are many benefits from running Personal Cattletrader as opposed to
running a stand-alone cattle trading program on your web site. Eg., Personal Cattletrader
listings, made on your site (say, by your members), will be automatically seen on
the Cattlefacts (national) site. as well as your web. This feature substantially increases
the audience for your trades.
However, visitors to your web site only ever see the trades entered on your
site. Its a very effective arrangement that gives you 'national' exposure for your
trades yet provides a totally 'personal' trading focus for members and visitors to your
web site. This means that on your site you are only marketing your listings, not those of
The following link will explain what this affiliate program is and how it
This link gives you an overview of the features and benefits of Personal
The Australian Braford Society is running
Personal Cattletrader on their web site. You can see it in operation and use it at: http://www.braford.org.au
If you would like Cattlefacts to contact you about Personal Cattletrader,
email below: mailto:email@example.com
WORKS CLOSING DATES: Find them in the web newsletter (12/12/00)
If you were wondering when the last works delivery date might be before
Xmas you should find your works' recess dates in our annual pre-Xmas roundup in our Guests
newsletter at http://www.cattlefacts.com.au/NewsLGuests.asp.
2001 opening dates and a phone number complete the listing. You will be able to reference
this convenient list of phone numbers in the newsletter all year.
FIND CATTLE BUYER: A new directory on Cattletrader (6/12/00)
"Find a cattle buyer" is a new Cattlefacts service for you on
the Cattletrader page. Once there, press the button then select which State. As the name
suggests listings will include all cattle buyers, including meatworks, feedlots and live
exporters etc. You will see their phone number, location details, contact person and a
brief description of their operation. The buyers you will see are those who take up our
offer of a free listing. By the new year, we anticipate most major works will appear in
The "Find a cattle buyer" directory will act as a time saving
reference to works, or buyers, you may want to contact. It will be particularly helpful
for contacting buyers out of your region.
In periods of tight cattle supply (as should continue for a couple more
years) works will buy cattle deep interstate to satisfy their needs. At the right time it
is not unusual for southern Victoria works to buy slaughter cattle in western Queensland
(Roma or even Longreach) or for southern Queensland processors to buy down as far as
Make sure your preferred cattle buyers gets the most out of the web by
being listed in this directory. To list free they can phone the Cattlefacts office (07)
4942 1457 and staff will make the entry for them.
You can see "Find a cattle buyer" by following this link: http://www.cattlefacts.com.au/cattletrader.asp
MEATWORKS USE CATTLETRADER: Cargill first toe in the water (10/12/00)
Meat processor, Cargill Foods Australia, with two plants and a feedlot in
NSW recently listed details of cattle they are looking to purchase on Cattlefacts
Cattletrader. Congratulation to their stock manager Harry Waddington whose entries made
Cargill the first works into the waters of the public trading forum we call Cattletrader.
Listing cattle requirements in Cattletrader is a valuable marketing tool for any business.
We look forward to other works joining in next year and adding value to their marketing.
The following link will take you to Cattletrader: http://www.cattlefacts.com.au/cattletrader.asp
All cattle buyers, not just processors, are welcome to list their purchase
requirements in Cattletrader and can do so themselves at any time or phone us on 07 4942
1457 if we can help. Cattle buyers in general are also invited to place their contact
details in our on-line "Find a cattle buyer" directory. We would be happy to
make the FREE entry for you if you ring us with the details.
SHEEP TRADER COMING: New service for the sheep industry (12/12/00)
We are enthusiastic about the new "SheepTrader" we have been
working on for release in late January 2001. We hope sheep traders Australia wide will
like the new service and find if improves their marketing. "SheepTrader" will
have all the features of Cattletrader, such as: Drop down selection boxes for reduced
typing, the ability to include a photo with a listing and full editing rights by the
Our research with agents and graziers have ensured that
"SheepTrader" contains all the entry options necessary to describe stock
including some special ones that you may want to specify like: Joined status, year drop,
mulsed, shorn month and fibre size.
For the many western and southern State cattlemen who have sheep as well
as cattle, "SheepTrader" should prove a great convenience. You will be able to
jump out of CattleTrader straight into "SheepTrader" and vice versa. Both
services operate identically so, if you are familiar with one you will know both.
As with CattleTrader, using "SheepTrader" will be FREE and open
to buyers, graziers and agents to use whenever they like. We will let you know in this
newsletter when "SheepTrader" is about to launch. If you have questions or
suggestions about "SheepTrader", you can email or phone us with your enquiry.
$3.00 Cattle-Price history made today. (3/11/00)
Today, 4 tooth grass fed Jap Ox officially barged through
the previous record price of $2.85 kg hcw set in late 1991 by bounding to a feverish $3.00
hcw in Central Queensland. Borthwicks Mackay set the price pace today with a hefty 15 cent
jump on their previous, two day old offer. This current offer even takes 8 tooth steers,
at $2.90, 5 cents beyond the old 4 tooth record.
Borthwicks is a mid-range player in the processing stakes and are obviously trying to
stem the flow of critically scarce cattle out of its catchment. By Monday other works and
major players who want to keep killing are likely to publicly enter the fray and push this
record to new heights as they battle to attract rain shortened supply to their depleted
More than steers are benefiting from short and ever shortening supply. Heavy works cows
and heifers reaching $2.70 in Brisbane and $2.68 in Wagga Wagga during the week are
believed to have already exceeded their 1991 high by about 10 c/kg.
It is significant that "hooks" steer prices have climbed a whopping 45 c/kg
from an average of $2.55 c/kg 12 days ago. The substantial and sudden rise is graphic
testimony to the competitive pressures in the market (strong demand and short supply) and
to buyers' preparedness to raid the substantial margins they have retained during the past
four months of the A$'s plunge and drought induced turnoff.
Right now there are a lot of cattlemen out there wishing their back paddocks were full
of prime steers or cull cows and I am wishing I'd had the courage to capitalise my own
projections of 12 months ago. Oh well, "no guts no glory". Nevertheless,
everyone will be asking- how long will it last? Few if any of us would be courageous, or
foolish, enough to speculate on how high prices will go. However, Cattlefacts members will
have noted in our consistent projections since 1998 that we expected price records to
tumble about now and price levels to remain high through to at least 2002.
Members would also be aware that this current spike in prices is largely, though not
totally, rain induced. But still in the future, the main driver of our high price
projections, light US supply, is yet to come into play in a measurable way. It shouldn't
be long coming and its upward influence on cattle prices should last for around two years.
In addition, members would recall that last year Cattlefacts projected that relative to
demand, Australia should run exceedingly light on finished cattle in late 2000 through to
around late 2002. That trend is also part of the current upward pressure on prices and
should exert a growing influence.
As a quick note to Cattlefacts members, remember that your detailed price reports are
now available for you to read on the web
as well as on FOD. You'll see the this historic competition played out in those reports
over the next weeks. Remember to be registered on-site and logged-on before you try to
access members-only market reports. If I can assist your first attempts please contact me.
Enjoy the times. It's about time.
ON-LINE: It calculates your best 'Hooks' return. (3/11/00)
Equaliser, the Cattlefacts program that analyses "over-the-hooks" offers to
identify the one that is likely to provide you with the highest return, is now available
for you to use on this web site.
Anyone can use Equaliser. This will primarily
be cattlemen of course but livestock agents are also welcome.
The effectiveness of Equaliser to calculate the best of two "hooks" offers
has been proven over the past two years of usage by Cattlefacts members using its fax
version. Over that time Equaliser has calculated the difference in return likely between
any two offers to be anywhere from hundreds to thousands of dollars, depending on the
circumstances. A very quick and accurate analysis by Equaliser for calculations that are
near impossible to do manually.
The web version of Equaliser makes it accessible to you any time and also provides a
very useful "Help" file for first time users. Equaliser has so captured the
essence of "hooks" selling that regardless of where in Australia you sell
"over-the-hooks" it should work equally effectively for you. Feel welcome to try
Equaliser for yourself and see why we claim it is the most powerful market tool that
"hooks" sellers have ever had and that by using Equaliser "you need never
Cattlefacts members use Equaliser free all the time and Registered guests to our web
site use it on our "No benefit - No cost" policy. Follow this link for details
about using Equaliser and more information about our claim that "Using Equaliser
you have everything to gain and nothing to loose."
PHOTOS ALLOWED IN
CATTLETRADER: Now you can show 'em. (3/11/00)
CattleTrader was recently upgraded to take a colour photo with any type of
listing. Including store and stud listings. Now its simple to show' em the quality of the
cattle you describe. This great marketing feature will remain free if you can email us the
photo, and unless we are consistently overwhelmed with entries, which hasn't happened as
To have a photo included, you just tick the appropriate box in the
CattleTrader listing form. You can also write a paragraph about the photo, to expand on
the listing details, by using the 'note' field in the same form. (you'll find it at the
bottom of the address section).
Now all that remains is for you to get the photo to Cattlefacts and there
are two options:
OPTION 1: Attach a scanned image to an email addressed to firstname.lastname@example.org
with the email subject line of "CattleTrader Photo". In the email write a brief
note with your name and contact details and the number of head and type of cattle
mentioned in the listing, or better still the record number of the CattleTrader, if you
happened to write it down. There's no need to get complicated as long as we get the
Now, the most important part, the PHOTO SPECIFICATIONS:
Type= Jpeg. Maximum length of sides= 310 pixels width, 152 pixels height.
OPTION 2: If you don't have a scanner you can send us the original photo
and $20 and we'll scan it in and return the photo to you. (Cattlefacts, P.O. Box 600
Remember, CattleTrader entries are free and although they automatically
expire after 14 days, you can keep them going indefinitely by "renewing" them
on-line any time before day 14.
We trust you will get to use this powerful new marketing feature to your
advantage. Let us know if we can assist you to use it.
Have your own on your own web site (3/11/00)
Next newsletter we will give you full details about an exciting and for some valuable
development of "Private CattleTrader" which is presently in the final testing
stage. In principle, it allows any private client (say a livestock agent or large cattle
trader) to run an exact same Cattlefacts CattleTrader on their own web page or site under
but under their own brand name.
The client's site has total input and delete control on all entries made on their site
(most will be their own). Any CattleTrader entries made by anyone on their site will be
automatically seen on Cattlefacts (national) site but they will own the entry and it will
contain their response address. However, visitors to their own site see only their
The first site to implement "Private CattleTrader" will be a well known breed
society but it is expected to have strong appeal to other industry groups including cattle
marketing groups and private livestock agents. The appeal of "Private
CattleTrader" comes from its tidy packaging of the expensive complexities of a
cattletrading database and web pages into a low cost, no maintenance, individually branded
and operated, trading package with national coverage yet individual identity. OK, I know
its a mouthful but I'm trying to be brief. More next newsletter
FIND AN AGENT: New free
service for Agents. (3/11/00)
You will find the "Find an agent" button on CattleTrader page of our web
site. Press the button and you can then select which State you want to find an agent. Then
you will see a list and details of any agents who have listed in our links page for that
State. As the list grows it will become a handy resource for cattlemen looking for agents
and agents looking for exposure and potential business outside their own patch.
Agents wanting to promote their business to cattlemen through this new free web service
can phone the Cattlefacts office (07) 4942 1457 and staff will make the entry for them. To
list, you don't need a computer, or an email address or a web site. Enquire if you would
like to find out why.
New service for our web Guests. (3/11/00)
As a convenience for our web guests we are presently launching a new "Guests
Should you miss our info emails for some reason you will be able to catch up on-line.
The web version is exactly the same news as this email-newsletter but the articles will be
archived for easy access and reference when you are on line. The web newsletter also gives
you the opportunity to send us an email comment about anything that strikes you at the
You will be able to access the "Guests Newsletter" from the newsletter button
on the homepage http://www.cattlefacts.com.au
Over the next two days if it's not there when you look, it may just be down for some
adjustment for a couple of hours.
& Welcome. (20/10/00)
Thank you for registering on Cattlefacts, we will keep this
site as helpful, informative and profitable for you as we can. Your comments will always
be a welcome incentive to steer us in the right direction. Welcome also to this first
newsletter (e-letter) for our valued Registered Guests and Members. Cattlefacts web is
already large with many FREE tools to help your cattle marketing but over the next 12
months important new marketing tools will be added for your benefit and existing tools are
being enhanced. Through these newsletters, you will be the first to know. In this
newsletter I'll briefly describe the first batch of service enhancements and how they
could benefit you.
Best wishes for successful cattle marketing.
Brian Herne (CATTLEFACTS Market Intelligence) CEO
"It's What Tomorrows Cattlemen are Doing Today"
CATTLETRADER: Now features an EEC accreditation "Blue Dot". (20/10/00)
Eec accredited cattle have been attracting 'hooks' premiums
of around 70 cents/kg in recent times and trading in these type of cattle requires
accreditation to reap these premiums. Consequently there is an advantage to buyers and
sellers of these types of cattle to having their accreditation immediately recognised in
commercial listings. Cattlefacts has introduced the "Blue Dot" to signify eec
acredited cattle in Cattletrader listings. To activate the blue dot for your listing of
eec acredited cattle simply involves ticking a box when you make your listing. Go to Cattletrader and read about "BLUE
The "Blue Dot" feature in Cattletrader now
provides eec acredited properties with a convenient and highly visible trading place to
promote their specialised cattle transactions. "Blue Dot" and FREE listing
should make Cattletrader the logical place to buy and sell eec acredited cattle on the
web. What do you think?
SAMPLE REPORTS: See samples of Members-Only reports. (20/10/00)
If you ever wondered what was in the
"Over-the-Hooks" market reports that Cattlefacts members have access to, you can
now see for yourself by clicking the "Market Reports" button on the left of the
home page or taking this link http://www.cattlefacts.com.au/marketrptBranch.asp.
There are two main reason these reports are private to
Cattlefacts members and not public or free. Members (currently about 300 properties)
actually pay an annual fee to have Cattlefacts run this specialised reporting service for
their benefit. Also, as part of the Cattlefacts "network" of properties, members
have submitted all the information in market reports themselves.
You could find these reports very interesting as they are
deliberately detailed. Their features and benefits are fully explained on-line.
Essentially, Cattlefacts members use them in several ways: to benchmark "hooks"
prices they are offered, to avoid underselling, to bargain up their prices and terms and
to keep an eye on actual price trends.
MEMBERS REPORTS: Members can now view reports on-line. (20/10/00)
Cattlefacts Members will be pleased to know that you can
now access your Members-Only market reports on our web by clicking the "Market
Reports" button on the home page. (Remember to be logged-on or log-on after you do).
Or you can take this quick link: http://www.cattlefacts.com.au/marketrptBranch.asp
If you are an "Active" Cattlefacts Member, you
should find our 'web reports' a quick way to see any of the reports you normally access on
FOD. You can also print just the report page that interests you directly off the web. I
find reading reports on the web is many times more convenient than traditional fax (which
we are committed to maintain in parallel for some years to come). You might like to let me
know what you think.
Just a reminder to members that to view these reports you
must be an 'Active' Member and have registered on the web site. If you are not logged-on
when you attempt to access reports the system will prompt you. These are necessary steps
to ensure the 'privacy' of your reports. However, our web site is very helpful because
it's intelligent enough to prompt you for what it requires and offer you appropriate
choices. Much about using the web is just a matter of familiarity.
LAUNCH SOON: It calculates your best 'Hooks' return. (20/10/00)
The long awaited re-launch of "Equaliser" on the
Cattlefacts web site is imminent. While Equaliser has run beautifully over fax for a
couple of years, we think we have overcome all the technical issues of putting it on the
web and are testing right now. It looks good.
Briefly, Equaliser is a specialist calculator that
'Over-hooks' sellers use to calculate which of two meatworks offers should bring the
greatest financial return on a draft of cattle. There are numerous features and benefits
from using this analyser of 'The offer of greatest return' and you can read about them by
clicking its button on our home page or taking this
Equaliser should become available on-line within two weeks
but we will let you know by email as soon as it does. Incidentally it's totally free to
use for active Cattlefacts members and Registered guests can use it on a "No
benefit-No cost" basis. At Cattlefacts we believe that Equaliser is arguably the most
powerful and potent risk management tool that Australian "Direct-to-works"
sellers have available. Assessing risk in any environment is never as simple as counting
marbles in a bag but we believe that Equaliser has reduced the inputs to the simplest set
of information available. Equaliser is designed to make and save you heaps. We would be
glad for you to tell us what you think email me at: email@example.com
On line soon. (20/10/00)
Cattlefacts members normally fax their sales and offer
information into the office on a pre-printed "Transaction" form and we are
working on the web version of that form now. Expect it to appear on-line early next year
(or sooner if possible). However, I can report that you will be delighted with its
quickness and convenience. In the mean time members please continue to fax all your inputs
in as normal.
A web "Transaction" form will be accessed from
the market reports page. At the moment, another feature of the market report page is that
you can print any of the fax forms that members use directly off the web onto your
printer. This beats 'order and post' so should be a great convenience in the mean time.
WEB TIPS: Increasing your screen resolution. (20/10/00)
If the page on your computer screen seems to have
disappeared past the right hand side of your screen no matter how much you scroll right,
then it could be that your screen's resolution is too low for the page you are trying to
view. Most pages these days are designed to be viewed at least 800 x 640 many older
screens are set on 600 x 480. Increasing your screen's resolution should solve the problem
for you and is simple to do when you know how. The settings are also reversible. This
could help: http://www.cattlefacts.com.au/CattletraderHelp.htm
NEED A WEB TIP? If you are new to the web
it can be so frustrating trying to discover how to do the simplest things. What you would
expect to be obvious is sometimes far from that but once shown, you can sail ahead. E-mail
us your question and we'll do our best to find you the answer. Contact firstname.lastname@example.org
" It's What Tomorrow's
Cattlemen are doing Today "
|Other Cattlefacts services