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Cattlefacts URGENT OTH Prices Update 2/6/08
(Tuesday, 3 June 2008 - Australian Cattlefacts)

2t Grain +(5-10c). Grass unchanged. Rain may be circuit breaker

Dinmore’s 2t only grainfed rates lifted +(5-10c) today but 4t 100-day remain unchanged, as do their grassfed rates. Generally, OTH grassfed rates at major works have stubbornly persisted at their current low levels for several months, especially since March when turnoff numbers began building up and confusion reigned in the Korean market. In addition, high rates of turnoff in north Queensland helped the meatworks at Swift Townsville and Borthwicks Mackay, late last week, pull -5c whole grid off their rates. Those new rates and the Dinmore 2t grainfed changes are reflected in the summary below and in the detailed reports on our Internet Members Console.

Over the past two weeks liveweight prices for export steers have lifted +(7-10c) and cows +(3-8c) but OTH grassfed rates have not reflected the gains even though saleyard rates last week were at times +(5-25c) above consignment rates. A circuit breaker is needed to lift OTH rates. Rainfall of 15-50mm over parts of southeast and far western Queensland during the week until Monday could throw the switch. But much will depend on the extent of the rain during the week and how far it moves into NSW, because slaughter rates are still at near record highs.

As mentioned in recent reports, the high weekly slaughter rates in both Queensland and NSW have been a dead weight on prime cattle prices. Last week was no different with Queensland slaughter going higher than the week before by +4% to 77,500 head (+3% LY) and NSW slaughtering 39,000 head (+9% LY). Buyers have become so ‘confident’ during this supply bubble that they are pulling out old grids and sending them to members. Some members have received grids one number previous to the most current, and at other times grids that are several months to over 12 months old. Maybe ‘confidence’ is too kind a word in these circumstances. Arrogance may be more appropriate.

Nevertheless it means you could get caught, as one of our members nearly did, unless you check your Cattlefacts prices summary before selling. The buyer sent them an ‘old’ grid that contained the ‘old’ bull rate, which was -15c below the rate on the latest grid. It was only by checking the Cattlefacts price summary that he unearthed the discrepancy and got the dearer grid (and an extra $45.00 per bull) from a not-embarrassed buyer. (NOTE: the member did not tell the buyer how he discovered the better rate.)

Korean beef market chaos continues:

No doubt you have been at least mildly aware of the dramas being played out in Korea over the proposal to allow U.S. beef back into their market. It just seems to get more heated as the weeks progress. It reached new heights last weekend with nationwide marches totalling a claimed 40,000 protesters and with opposition parties filing legal injunctions against the governments plan to resume U.S. beef imports. (See one of several stories here). From media reports it is the sort of situation governments could fall on, but the Korean government seems bent on enacting its planed resumption of U.S. beef trade despite growing public protests. Will that benefit U.S. beef? My guess is probably not. On the contrary, it may turn Korean consumers off the star spangled product for some time to come. Dinmore’s latest 2t grainfed price rise could be an early sign that Australian exporters are expecting a backlash against U.S. product in Korea. Lifting 2t rates for 70-day grainfed by +10c could increase overall grainfed slaughter by encouraging the earlier turnoff of 100-day targeted feedstock.

Putting all the current market elements together, there’s an improving possibility that prices could take a hike sooner than later because: Mid June and reduced turnoff is getting nearer; export cattle prices have been rising in the physical market; U.S. product looks like its driving itself up a blind ally in Korea and 2-t grainfed rates improved today. Add recent rain in the south east of Qld and into NSW and it could be the catalyst for dearer young cattle prices at the least. With enough spread to the rain, the prime market should also respond positively.

Correction & Additional info:

Correction: In the last summary we said “Teys Rockhampton adjusted their bull prices up +15c to $3.25 (Typo, should have been $2.25) to be 10c under Dinmore and Beenleigh, but 10c ahead of JBS Rocky”. Sorry! I guess many picked up it was a typo and $3.25 should have been $2.25. However, a few rang in just in case pigs do fly. Additional info: Last report we gave you an overview of who “Wingham Beef Exporters” were. I forgot to mention Nippon Meat Packers Australia Pty Ltd (NMPA) owns them. That’s the same owner of Borthwicks Mackay, Oakey Abattoir and the 50,000 head Whyalla Feedlot at Texas in Qld. NMPA also owns and operates the Tong Park piggery, a 40,000 head facility situated in the Darling Downs region of Queensland.

MEMBERS PLEASE NOTE: It is important to the effectiveness of the network that you forward new price offers to Cattlefacts immediately you receive them. Please don't wait two or three hours, or a whole day, before you fax or email your grids. Fax (07) 4942 5207 - OR email.

REMEMBER: Members are not permitted to provide Cattlefacts reports or disclose Cattlefacts as your information source to any third party (meatworks buyers and agents included).

OTH PRICES SUMMARY

Steers 2t:
JBS DIN....$3.25 320-340kg 5-12mm
OAKEY.....$3.25 320-340kg 5-12mm
WINGHAM$3.25 260-299kg 5-12mm
JBS DIN....$3.15 260-280kg 5-12mm
JBS ROC..$3.10 320-340kg 5-12mm
TEY BIL.....$3.10 320-340kg 6-22mm
TEY ROC..$3.10 320-340kg 6-22mm
WINGHAM$3.10 300-338kg 10-27mm
OAKEY.....$3.10 260-280kg 5-12mm
COLES.....$3.05 220-270kg 4-18mm
BINDARE..$3.00 275-424kg 6-22mm
TEY ROC..$3.00 260-280kg 6-22mm
TEY BIL.....$3.00 260-280kg 6-22mm
BORTHWI.$2.95 300-340kg 7-27mm
JBS TSVL.$2.95 320-340kg 5-12mm
COLES.....$2.95 270-280kg 4-18mm
JBS ROC..$2.95 260-280kg 5-12mm
BINDARE..$2.95 250-274kg 6-22mm
BORTHWI.$2.85 260-280kg 5-12mm
JBS TSVL.$2.75 260-280kg 5-12mm

Steers 2t: G
JBS DIN....$3.70 340-420kg 7-22mm
JBS DIN....$3.60 280-320kg 5-12mm
JBS DIN....$3.60 260-280kg 7-22mm
JBS DIN....$3.55 260-280kg 5-12mm

Steers 4t: EU
JBS DIN....$3.65 340-420kg 7-17mm
WINGHAM$3.62 300-380kg 5-25mm
TEY ROC..$3.55 340-420kg 6-22mm
WINGHAM$3.52 260-300kg 5-25mm
JBS DIN....$3.50 280-300kg 7-17mm
TEY ROC..$3.40 280-300kg 6-22mm

Steers 4t:
WINGHAM$3.05 300-420kg 10-27mm
JBS DIN....$3.05 300-420kg 7-22mm
OAKEY.....$3.00 300-420kg 7-29mm
BINDARE..$2.95 300-424kg 6-22mm
TEY BIL.....$2.95 300-420kg 8-22mm
JBS ROC..$2.95 300-420kg 7-22mm
TEY ROC..$2.95 300-420kg 8-22mm
BORTHWI.$2.85 300-420kg 7-27mm
JBS TSVL.$2.75 300-420kg 7-22mm

Steers 4t: G
JBS DIN....$3.60 340-420kg 7-22mm
KIL FG......$3.60 300-400kg 8-25mm
KIL FG......$3.50 280-300kg 8-25mm

Steers 6t:
WINGHAM$3.05 300-420kg 10-27mm
JBS DIN....$3.00 300-420kg 7-22mm
OAKEY.....$2.95 300-420kg 7-29mm
BINDARE..$2.90 300-424kg 6-22mm
TEY ROC..$2.90 300-420kg 8-22mm
TEY BIL.....$2.90 300-420kg 8-22mm
JBS ROC..$2.90 300-420kg 7-22mm
BORTHWI.$2.80 300-420kg 7-27mm
JBS TSVL.$2.65 300-420kg 7-22mm

Steers 6t: G
JBS DIN....$3.55 340-420kg 7-22mm
KIL FG......$3.45 300-400kg 8-25mm

Heifers 2t:
JBS DIN....$3.20 320-340kg 5-12mm
OAKEY.....$3.20 320-340kg 5-12mm
WINGHAM$3.20 260-299kg 5-12mm
JBS DIN....$3.10 260-280kg 5-12mm
TEY ROC..$3.05 320-340kg 6-22mm
TEY BIL.....$3.05 320-340kg 6-22mm
JBS ROC..$3.05 320-340kg 5-12mm
OAKEY.....$3.05 260-280kg 5-12mm
COLES.....$3.05 220-270kg 4-18mm
BINDARE..$2.95 275-424kg 6-22mm
JBS TSVL.$2.95 320-340kg 5-12mm
TEY ROC..$2.95 260-280kg 6-22mm
TEY BIL.....$2.95 260-280kg 6-22mm
COLES.....$2.95 270-280kg 4-18mm
JBS ROC..$2.90 260-280kg 5-12mm
BINDARE..$2.90 250-274kg 6-22mm
BORTHWI.$2.85 280-300kg 5-12mm
BORTHWI.$2.80 260-280kg 5-12mm
JBS TSVL.$2.70 260-280kg 5-12mm

Heifers 2t: G
JBS DIN....$3.70 340-420kg 7-22mm
JBS DIN....$3.55 280-320kg 5-12mm
JBS DIN....$3.55 260-280kg 7-22mm
JBS DIN....$3.50 260-280kg 5-12mm

Heifers 4t: EU
JBS DIN....$3.60 340-420kg 7-17mm
WINGHAM$3.57 300-380kg 5-25mm
TEY ROC..$3.50 340-420kg 6-22mm
WINGHAM$3.47 260-300kg 5-25mm
JBS DIN....$3.45 280-300kg 7-17mm
TEY ROC..$3.35 280-300kg 6-22mm

Heifers 4t:
JBS DIN....$3.00 300-420kg 7-22mm
WINGHAM$2.95 260-299kg 5-12mm
TEY ROC..$2.90 300-420kg 8-22mm
TEY BIL.....$2.90 300-420kg 8-22mm
JBS ROC..$2.90 300-420kg 7-22mm
BINDARE..$2.85 300-424kg 6-22mm
BORTHWI.$2.80 300-420kg 7-27mm
JBS TSVL.$2.70 300-420kg 7-22mm

Heifers 4t: G
JBS DIN....$3.60 340-420kg 7-22mm
KIL FG......$3.55 300-400kg 8-25mm
KIL FG......$3.45 280-300kg 8-25mm

Heifers 6t:
JBS DIN....$2.95 300-420kg 7-22mm
OAKEY.....$2.90 300-420kg 7-29mm
TEY BIL.....$2.85 300-420kg 8-22mm
TEY ROC..$2.85 300-420kg 8-22mm
JBS ROC..$2.85 300-420kg 7-22mm
BINDARE..$2.80 300-424kg 6-22mm
BORTHWI.$2.80 300-420kg 7-27mm
JBS TSVL.$2.60 300-420kg 7-22mm

Heifers 6t: G
JBS DIN....$3.55 340-420kg 7-22mm
KIL FG......$3.40 300-400kg 8-25mm

Cows 8t:
WINGHAM$2.80 300-400kg 5-22mm
BINDARE..$2.75 300-424kg 5-17mm
JBS DIN....$2.75 300-420kg 3-12mm
OAKEY.....$2.70 300-420kg 3-19mm
WINGHAM$2.70 260-300kg 5-22mm
TEY ROC..$2.65 300-420kg 3-12mm
TEY BIL.....$2.65 300-420kg 3-12mm
JBS ROC..$2.65 300-420kg 3-12mm
JBS DIN....$2.65 260-280kg 3-12mm
BINDARE..$2.65 250-274kg 5-17mm
OAKEY.....$2.60 260-280kg 3-19mm
BORTHWI.$2.55 300-420kg 3-22mm
TEY BIL.....$2.55 260-280kg 3-12mm
TEY ROC..$2.55 260-280kg 3-12mm
JBS ROC..$2.55 260-280kg 3-12mm
WINGHAM$2.55 220-260kg 5-22mm
BINDARE..$2.55 225-249kg 5-17mm
OAKEY.....$2.50 220-240kg 3-19mm
JBS DIN....$2.50 220-240kg 3-12mm
BORTHWI.$2.45 260-280kg 3-22mm
JBS TSVL.$2.40 300-420kg 3-12mm
JBS ROC..$2.40 220-240kg 3-12mm
TEY BIL.....$2.40 220-240kg 3-12mm
TEY ROC..$2.40 220-240kg 3-12mm
JBS TSVL.$2.30 260-280kg 3-12mm
BORTHWI.$2.30 220-240kg 3-22mm
WINGHAM$2.30 180-220kg 5-22mm
JBS TSVL.$2.15 220-240kg 3-12mm
JBS DIN....$1.90 180-200kg 3-12mm
TEY ROC..$1.90 180-200kg 3-12mm
TEY BIL.....$1.90 180-200kg 3-12mm
JBS ROC..$1.80 180-200kg 3-12mm
OAKEY.....$1.80 180-200kg 3-19mm
BINDARE..$1.70 150-174kg 5-17mm
JBS TSVL.$1.65 180-200kg 3-12mm
BORTHWI.$1.60 180-200kg 3-22mm

Bulls 8t:
JBS DIN....$2.35 260-320kg 0-32mm
BINDARE..$2.30 350-450kg 0-32mm
TEY ROC..$2.25 300-440kg 0-32mm
TEY BIL.....$2.25 300-440kg 0-32mm
JBS ROC..$2.15 260-300kg 0-32mm
BORTHWI.$1.95 300-440kg 0-32mm
JBS TSVL.$1.95 260-320kg 0-32mm
   ..END

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